Laos - U.S. Relations Report

Me in a Laotian tree

 Laos is gradually moving away from its war-torn impoverished state and increasingly becoming involved in the international community, including engagement with the United States. In July 2012, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Laos, marking the first visit by a Secretary of State since 1955.  Laos was accepted into the World Trade Organization in 2013 albeit it applied for membership in 1997. President Obama became the first U.S. President to visit Laos in September 2016, when he and Lao President Bounnhang Vorachit committed to a Comprehensive Partnership [1]. On a relative note, especially in the midst of the US change of administration, Dr. Jill Biden, wife of President Biden, visited Laos in 2015 becoming the first representative from the White House to ever visit Laos [2]. A relatively unique feature of the country is that 70 percent of Laos’ population is under 30 years old [3].  It stands to reason that “a large part of U.S. bilateral assistance to Laos is devoted to improving health and child nutrition” [1].

Lao became fully independent from France in 1954, subsequently America established diplomatic relations in 1955 [4].  Laos entered civil war soon after, and the United States supported the country’s royal government which ultimately lost. In the midst of the bipolar ideological nature of the cold war, U.S.- Lao relations naturally deteriorated after the communist Pathet Lao took control of the government in 1975, ending a six-hundred-year-old monarchy and instituting a strict socialist regime closely aligned to Vietnam and the Soviet bloc[5]. Laos had been dependent on the Soviet Union for military and economic aid; therefore, it was only rational that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Laos sought to improve relations with other countries. Full U.S.-Lao diplomatic relations were restored in 1992 [4].        

The flag of the Laotian monarchy which 

America supported

What is commonly referred to as the Vietnam War was part of wider overlapping conflicts which also took place in parts of Laos and Cambodia hence it’s also known more accurately as the Second Indochina War. Laos was heavily bombed by the US during the Second Indochina war which was interlinked and overlapped with the Laotian civil war, a proxy war involving the Soviet backed communist resistance and the US backed monarchy. Unlike many faux democratic de facto exclusively socialist states, Laos is still to this day one of the only nations in the world which openly admits to allowing only one political party legally; the Lao People`s Revolutionary Party. 

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Laos is guilty of significant human rights abuse. Although the government allegedly prosecutes and punishes officials for corruption, the same can`t be said for officials who commit other abuses, furthermore, police and security forces are able to commit “human rights abuses with impunity” [6].

Cooperation in the aftermath of war is in the mutual interests of both Laos and the United States. According to the state department, “accounting for American personnel missing in Laos and clearing unexploded ordnance (UXO) from the war was the initial focus – and remains a key component – of the post-war bilateral relationship” [1].  Large amounts of unexploded ordnance (UXO) from the Indochina War still remain in Lao. UXO caused approximately 25 casualties in 2019 (travelstate.gov). Lao and American authorities continue to carry out joint operations in order to find the remains of unaccounted Americans at the end of the Indochina war. 

Conflict regarding the Hmong is another residual wartime controversy still very relevant today. The Hmong people have been part of the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization (UNPO) since 2007. Many of the Hmong ethnic minority in Laos were recruited by the CIA to aid in the fight against the spread of communism. After Pathet Lao officially took over the country, conflict continued in regional pockets. Perceived as American collaborators, the Lao government committed persecution against its Hmong minority. Human rights violations against civic opposition and the Hmong people has continued over the years to this day and Laos has repeatedly denied its acts of genocide. The Hmong make up about 10% of the population and identify as a distinct group from the general population due to their unique culture, language and religion [7]. The Lao government refuses to acknowledge the Hmong as an indigenous group in spite of these facts. Groups of Hmong, especially second and third generation descendants of CIA soldiers, remain internally displaced within remote regions in fear of military operations against them. After communists established control, America stopped actively supporting them. As a result of the turmoil, hundreds of thousands of Hmong refugees have fled to other countries since, yet thousands of them ended up forcibly repatriated at a later date due to collaboration with Laotian government from neighboring countries such as Thailand and Vietnam. Over the years, there have been numerous suspicious cases of individual disappearances following arrest by Laotian authorities [7]. Lao, a signatory to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights is obligated under international law not to arbitrarily arrest anybody [7]. In October 2020, the UN publicized a joint allegation letter to the Lao government expressing the concern over state supported persecution of Hmong hiding in the remote jungle [7]. 

So now we`re gunna talk about the economy as represented by this picture of many watermelons. Despite remaining under one-party communist rule, Laos’ economy now operates virtually under a free market system which incrementally welcomed private enterprise following the introduction of economic reforms in 1986 [1]. The World Bank referred to Laos as “one of the fastest growing economies in East Asia and the Pacific” as well as “an important energy exporter” [8]. And yet Laos remains one of the poorest Asian countries despite making good developmental improvement in the last decade. Its vulnerable economy can be partially attributed to its low-skilled workforce. Laos credit rating was downgraded this year in September [9]. The economy has taken a huge hit due to Corona suffering its slowest recorded economic growth since 1990 [9]. Lao is in debt, a significant amount of which is owed to China and yet, “It has avoided financing options like the G20’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative and the IMF’s pandemic-related Rapid Credit Facility in favor of further Chinese lending” [10]. American companies are encouraged to seek business in Lao. The major hallmark brand Coca-Cola arrived as late as 2015 paving the way for a handful of more [2]. Earlier this month Starbucks officially announced that it will be moving into Laos [2].

Water has always been a source of political and strategic importance. Lao is the only landlocked country in South East Asia. However, it contains one watery component which can potentially be leveraged to its advantage and that is the Mekong River. The bulk of the river runs through Laos, a large section is also used to demarcate the Thai-Lao border. The Mekong is culturally, historically and diplomatically significant, so much so that it inspired much of the symbolism in the official flag of Laos; “the blue band represents the Mekong River and prosperity; the white disk symbolizes the full moon against the Mekong River, but also signifies the unity of the people under the Lao People's Revolutionary Party” [5]. The United States and Laos are mutually motivated toward a stable and prosperous future for the Mekong sub-region [4]. Bilateral cooperation accelerated following the start of the Lower Mekong Initiative in 2009, a platform used for addressing diplomatic and developmental changes in the Lower Mekong [1]. One of Laos` vital strategies for development is generating electricity from its waterways and selling the power to neighboring countries. Another is its ambition to become a “land-linked” nation by constructing a new series of railways connecting it to its neighbors. The kingdom which Laos traces its roots back to was historically able to become a wealthy trading hub due in part to its central South East Asian location. The Mekong runs through several countries which must handle various concerns together such as “trans-boundary water resources management, infectious diseases such as dengue and pandemic influenza, and vulnerability to the negative effects of climate change” [3].  The Lower Mekong Initiative strives to foster effective regional responses through mutual understanding of these concerns [3]. China has grown to be the dominating challenge of the Mekong, having built innumerable dams upstream thus limiting the supply of valuable water to countries down river who are already challenged by climate change induced drought [11].

Southeast Asia harbors divisive views over Chinese influence and Laos seems to lean particularly heavy toward China, with whom it has found itself entangled into a debt trap. Lao is an active member of the multilateral group ASEAN, albeit it is not one of the founding members of ASEAN, which formed in 1967 as a counter to the spread of communism in Asia. Laos became a member of ASEAN in 1997. Newer China-friendly entrants such as Laos have been criticized for muddying ASEANs core ideals; in 2007 Singapore`s founding prime minister referred to it as an “outpost for China” during a meeting with U.S. diplomats [12]. ASEAN tensions and Chinese regional ambitions have continued to grow simultaneously. According to the 2020 survey report by the ASEAN Studies Center at the ISEAS- Yusof Ishak Institute, the most alarming security concerns in the region are “domestic political instability (70.5%), economic downturn (68.5%) and the impact of climate change (66.8%)” [13]. Almost one third of the respondents (31.3%) reported that ASEAN should remain neutral in the US-China rivalry while the majority (73.2%) expressed the concern over the potential for ASEAN members to become proxies for the interest of major powers [13]. Close to half (48%) supported internal strengthening of ASEAN as a countermeasure to the competitive pressure from America and China. A key takeaway from the comprehensive survey report is that “China is seen as the most influential economic and political-strategic power in the region” [13]. Of course, China is not overall well-perceived by the region but when presented with the question of an ultimatum the majority of respondents from Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Laos favored China over the US. The report also pointed out that Samsung is the leading telecommunication provider of 5G networks in ASEAN states while “relatively competitive” Chinese companies are the providers of choice in Laos, Cambodia and Malaysia [13]. 

Laos must be encouraged to stop feeding the beast that kills it and enhance cooperation within ASEAN. According to Heritage`s 2020 Index of Economic Freedom, Laos ranks 129 out of 180 putting it in the category labeled “Mostly Unfree”. In 2013, China launched its belt and road initiative, which includes a $6 billion rail line in Laos. America has viewed the BRI as an attempt to undermine the Western dominated institutions of the U.S. built liberal international order. However, it is not to eliminate or replace it but to beat others at their own game. Since China has learned to utilize the US-led order with great success, there was no legitimate reason to adapt an alternative framework of its own [14].  One of Singapore`s most prestigious diplomats describe Chinese diplomacy as “a melding of Westphalian diplomatic practice with ancient Chinese statecraft” [15]. Chinas` partnerships with developing countries sows a similar discontentment to that felt by said nations when dealing with Western derived organizations such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Laos has been fearful that it wouldn`t be able to afford its share of the $6 billion rail line project since its total economic output was $12 billion per year [14]. Furthermore, “a feasibility study by a Chinese company said that the railway would lose money for the first 11 years” [14]. Perhaps Laotian collaboration with China will not bode beneficial in the long term as it hopes. Although the rapid development of riparian states has exuberated the demand for cheaper renewable energy, recent rifts has driven a hole into Laos` hydropower plans. Thailand having always been a “staunch supporter” of the Chinese backed hydro-powered project has now for the first time ever taken a new stance against one of the proposed dams on the Mekong River. [16]. An official from the Joint Committee under the Mekong River Commission stated that they are considering not purchasing power from the Sanakham Dam, the construction of which was originally scheduled to begin at the end of this year [16]. The Cabinet is reportedly concerned about the ecological impact as well as national security since the dam’s location would be on a water ridge extremely close to Thailand`s border [16].  Laos should look toward alternative means to achieve its developmental interests, preferable ones that don`t negatively affect local communities’ livelihood or the environment. The aforementioned Hmong persecution which has escalated since 2016 is suspected to be fueled by economical motivations in addition to historical grudges since several Hmong communities have been forced out of hiding from government designated “specific economic zones” [7].

The World Bank has suggested that forests could be the key to Laos recovery after COVID-19, stating that “demand for verified legal and sustainable tropical forest products (“good wood”) is increasing rapidly in markets around the world” [17]. Laotian landmass is dominated by forest covered mountains. The environment in the Phou Bia region has also undergone substantial impact due to Illegal wood logging [7]. It stands to reason that Laos should strategically tap into its resources and be educated toward transformation into a greener economy. Here lies an opportunity for Laos to meet the growing demand in markets which include the EU and US for imported wood legally filtered through green procurement policies while simultaneously sustaining both its forest landscapes and local livelihood [17]. Renewed US commitment toward the Mekong is appreciated by South East Asian nations but evidence is lacking as to whether it could pave alternatives to Chinas massive trade investments and hegemonic influence over countries such as Laos [18]. America could perhaps spend its dueling diplomatic efforts more effectively if directed into incentivizing Lao toward its forestry sector. It would have to be carefully managed by good governance, establish institutions to instill a knowledgeable workforce, ensure that locals are employed and manage both planted and native forest to secure short term and long-term interest of domestic and international investors but if done correctly Lao could emerge with an internationally competitive sector [17].

Laos also holds some the world`s most biologically diverse ecosystems home to many endangered species. Over the past 2 years, the government has established its first three national parks [19]. USAID makes efforts to promote conservation of biodiversity through improving the ability of law enforcement authorities to counter illegal wildlife trafficking [3]. Considering that most pandemics are zoonotic and COVID is thought to have originated from wildlife trade, this is a potential transnational issue that’s in everybody’s interest to counter. Nothing could be more of a success in foreign affairs than preventing or hindering issues before they are reported as headline grabbers. Laos is also headquarters of the transnational criminal organization led by Zhao Wei [20]. This organization has been known to exploit the Golden Triangle Special Economic Zone to engage in wildlife trafficking of endangered and vulnerable animals, including Asiatic black bears, pangolin, tigers, rhinos, and elephants. In 2018, the US Department of Treasury declared sanctions toward the Zhao Wei TCO which is known for facilitating drug trafficking, money laundering, bribery and human and wildlife trafficking primarily through the Kings Romans Casino [20]. Stopping crimes of such nature is a matter of national and transnational security. Some speculate that Laos may turn into a narcos state since drug cartels have strategically utilized Laos in order to adapt and thrive in the pandemic [21]. South East Asian drug cartels have avoided crackdowns on conventional transit routes by shifting routes through Laos [21]. Zhao Wei is a corrupt criminal regional leader who remains undeterred by Laos government, just last month “he presided over the groundbreaking for a new $50 million port in the special economic zone” while “a high-ranking Lao official was in attendance” [21].    

The Trump Administration’s 2017 National Security Strategy centered on the observation that we are in “a geopolitical competition between free and repressive visions of world order.” Secretary Pompeo also stated that China is the first challenge he thinks about every day. [22]. Trump perhaps understood Chinas intentions in ways his predecessors did not and treated it as a threat akin to the Soviet Union. Yet his response with blatant isolationist policies had severe weaknesses which likely limited cooperation with countries under coercion to play by Chinas rules. Trumps rhetoric extended harshly into the Mekong region sowing discontent over the deportation of Lao nationals from the United States. Earlier this year following the disagreement, the US discontinued with only very limited exceptions all immigration and nonimmigration visas for Laos citizens applying from within Lao [23]. The US Secretary of Homeland Security declared that Laos, “denies or unreasonably delays accepting the return of its citizens, subjects, nationals or residents subject to final orders of removal from the United States” [23]. Perhaps these visa sanctions partially contribute to the Laotian preference toward Chinas` grip. In July, the Laotian government responded by expressing that “the unfounded and unfair act by the US Government was not only unacceptable and counterproductive but could bring about a negative impact on the positive and growing Laos-US cooperative relationship as well” [2]. The Obama administration believed that increased engagement with the closed-off authoritarian nation would foster better integration into multilateral organizations, globalized trade and enhance regional security [23]. In contrast to Trump`s revisionist foreign policy the Biden administration is anticipated to restore conventional American relationships with Asia [2]. The United States has a long history of interactions with Southeast Asian countries and is becoming increasingly knowledgeable of its growing number of transnational issues but hopefully with this brief is better prepared to tackle them.  

                                                                   References

{1} U.S. Relations With Laos - United States Department of State. (2016, December 13). Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-laos/

{2} Phonevilay, L. (2020, November 09). What Could a Biden Presidency Mean for Laos? Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

https://laotiantimes.com/2020/11/09/what-could-a-biden-presidency-mean-for-laos/

{3} LAOS. (2020, November 24). Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

https://www.usaid.gov/es/laos

{4} Policy and History. (n.d.). Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

https://la.usembassy.gov/our relationship/policy-history/

 

{5} The World Factbook 2020. Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 2020.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/la.html

{6} Laos - United States Department of State. (2019). Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

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{7} UN Special Rapporteurs Send Joint Allegation Letter to Lao Government Raising Issue of

ChaoFa Hmong. (2020, October 30). Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

https://unpo.org/article/22110

{8} The World Bank in Lao PDR. (2020, October 14). Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/lao/overview

{9} Sims, K. (2020, October 31). Laos set its own debt trap. Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/10/31/laos-set-its-own-debt-trap/

{10} Sullivan, B. (2020, November 02). China's debt-trap diplomacy: Laos' credit rating downgraded to CCC. Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

https://www.thailand-business-news.com/asean/laos/81409-chinas-debt-trap-diplomacy-laos-credit-rating-downgraded-to-ccc.html

{11} A Review of "Under Beijing's Shadow: Southeast Asia's China Challenge" by Murray Hiebert.

(2020, September 03). Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

https://www.cfr.org/blog/review-under-beijings-shadow-southeast-asias-china-challenge-murray-hiebert

{12} Turton, S. (2020, November 13). Beijing-friendly Cambodia and Laos pushed out to ASEAN's fringe. Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Beijing-friendly-Cambodia-and-Laos-pushed-out-to-ASEAN-s-fringe2

{13} Tang, S. M. et al., The State of Southeast Asia: 2020 (Singapore: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, 2020). Retrieved from, https://www.iseas.edu.sg/images/pdf/TheStateofSEASurveyReport_2020.pdf

{14} Neack, L. (2019). Studying foreign policy comparatively cases and analysis. Lanham, MD:

Rowman and Littlefield. pg.153

{15} Yahuda, M. (2019). The international politics of the Asia-Pacific. London ; New York: Routledge, Taylor et Francis Group. pg. 264

 

{16} B. (2020, November 28). Nail in coffin for Lao dam? Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2026607/nail-in-coffin-for-lao-dam-

{17} Greener Growth through Good Wood: Sustaining Forest Landscapes and Local Livelihoods in Lao PDR. (2020, August 17). Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

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{18} Haefner, A. (2020, October 20). Duelling diplomacy over Southeast Asia's most important river. Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/duelling-diplomacy-over-southeast-asia-s-most-important-river

{19} Lao Biodiversity : A Priority for Resilient Green Growth. (2020, July 17). Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

 https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/lao/publication/lao-biodiversity-a-priority-for-resilient-green-growth?cid=eap_fb_laos_xx_ext

 {20} U.S. Department of the Treasury. (2018, January 30). Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm0272

{21} Sullivan, M. (2020, October 19). Drug Cartels Flourish In Southeast Asia Amid The Pandemic. Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/19/925501081/drug-cartels-flourish-in-southeast-asia-amid-the-pandemic

{22} U.S. Mission Laos. (2020, November 20). Covert, Coercive, and Corrupting: Countering the Chinese Communist Party's Malign Influence in Free Societies. Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

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{23} Phonevilay, L. (2020, June 05). US Suspends Visas for Citizens of Laos. Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

https://laotiantimes.com/2020/06/05/us-suspends-visas-for-citizens-of-laos/

{24} Kurlantzick, J. (2013, January 15). The True Face of Laos. Retrieved November 29, 2020, from

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