North Korea is really good at being bad. It is consistently ranked annually with the lowest possible rating for political rights and civil liberties and among the exceptionally worst of the worst (Freedomhouse.org). It is also the longest running totalitarian state in history (Staff, 2018). Bittersweetly, nations which possess nuclear weapons deter other nations which possess nuclear weapons from using their nukes. Efforts by the United States to fight “evil” in the international playing field has ultimately exacerbated the problem and pushed the state into further reclusion. Sanctions placed by the International community have not worked at all and cause most of their infliction to the DPRK’s ordinary citizens which have no grip against the government’s actions. North Korea will not fully denuclearize anytime soon and is clearly extremely resistant to international provocation and internal unrest. It is too late, and the world should be focused on more realistic incremental goals in order to create a more perfect and more cooperative nuclear union and not backing a dangerous regime into a corner.
India, Pakistan, and Israel are also nuclear weapon
states who are not under the NPT but there are several things which make these
countries different cases than North Korea and therefore more tolerated. It has
never been verified that Israel has successfully detonated a nuclear weapon
although they clearly possess them (Davenport and Reif, 2018). Israel has the
justification; "Iran, openly, explicitly and publicly, threatens to wipe
Israel off the map” said Prime Minister at the time, Ehud Olmert who accidently
revealed that Israel has nukes for the first time while speaking in Germany (Campbell
and Harding, 2018). Before then Israel had kept its nuclear program secret and
still abides by its policy to never officially deny or confirm it (Davenport
and Reif, 2018). North Korea on the other hand, along with India and Pakistan
have successfully detonated. Shortly after the 9/11 attacks, the Bush
administration lifted sanctions on Pakistan and India claiming that cooperation
received after terror attacks partly led to sanction removal being in best
interests (Wagner, 2018). State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said at a
September 24th, 2001 press briefing; “We intend to support those who
support us. We intend to work with those governments that work with us in this
fight [against terrorism].” Furthermore, India, Pakistan and Israel have
various governing bodies within them considering India and Pakistan are Federal
Parliamentary Republics and Israel a Parliamentary Democracy (Cia.gov, 2018).
There are lots of procedures for them which have to be followed in order to
attack any country, on the contrary North Korea is classified as a single-party
totalitarian state and the international community doesn’t want nuclear proliferation
particularly in rogue states.
In
the early 1970’s, North Korea began to have trouble paying its external debt
due to turnkey factory purchases from Japan and the West during industrial
expansion from exhausting its own industries (Savada, 1993). In 1976 the
economy was equal to that as South Korea but ever since then it lagged further
and further behind (Savada, 1993). In the 70’s – 80’s NK was still able to
import oil from China and USSR at below market prices but the deals ended after
the cold war and the oil consumption declined from 76,000 barrels per day (b/d)
in 1991 to 17,000 b/d in 2013 (TheGlobalEconomy.com, 2018). While they do have
less nowadays, they still have the Dandong-Sinuiju pipeline from China which
supplies it with half a million tons of crude and is excluded from UN sanctions
for the simple reason that if China turns it off, it may be very difficult to
turn on again (Huang, 2018). China says that the crude from the Daquing
oilfield which runs through the pipe is high in wax and solidifies easily in
cold if the flow is slowed to a certain point and that it can become damaged
beyond repair. Although analysts report that China is likely pushing for exception
because it’s unwilling to drive the DPRK to societal collapse fearing a flood
of refugees coming across its border (Huang, 2018).
Sanctions
are clearly negatively affecting North Korea. A North Korean spokesman said
that they are “a brutal criminal act that indiscriminately infringes upon the
right to existence of the peaceful civilians, the colossal amount of damage
caused by these sanctions to the development of our state and the people’s
livelihood is beyond anyone’s calculation.” (Sang-Hun, 2017). Factories have
closed lacking raw materials and fisherman have abandoned their boats
(Sang-Hun, 2018). In 2017 the DPRK suffered the biggest economic drop in 20
years (CNBC, 2018). The United Nations Security Council banned DPRK’s key
exports of coal, iron, textiles, seafood. President Trump and South Korean
President Moon Jae-in claim that their maximum pressure policy contributed to
bringing Kim to the negotiating table (Sang-Hun, 2018).
Despite
all this, the sanctions no matter how brutal won’t be enough to push Kim into
giving up his nuclear arsenal. Economic hardship and sanctions are the normal
in North Korea and they have found several ways to adapt. “If you think the
North Koreans would revolt or the regime would collapse because of sanctions,
you don’t know anything about the North Koreans, These are people who survived
the famine by eating weeds and even talk proudly about it.” said Kang Mi-jin, a
North Korean defector who collects North Korean consumer prices for the South’s
Republic (Sang-Hun, 2018). North Koreans are using coal and wood burning
trucks, an adaption tactic popular during fuel shortages in WWII (Mims, 2011). Goods
which are banned from the sanctions are frequently smuggled both in and out of
North Korea across the Chinese border at night colluding with border guards for
a convenient window of time (Sang-Hun, 2018). A panel of United Nations experts
estimated that the DPRK earned $200 million last year through illegal trading
and it is also reported that the number of smugglers near border town has
doubled since the tightened UN sanctions in recent years (Sang-Hun, 2018). While
this could be seen that the sanctions are effectively hitting North Korea it is
more reasonable to view that the country will always find ways to cope but never
find ways to denuclearize.
North Korean regime is particularly and uniquely
unbreakable compared to any other example in history showing no vulnerability
to coups or revolts. North Korean government as usual responds to hardship by
prioritizing the military and political elite, especially Kim their chubby
leader (Sang-Hun, 2018). They are also able to twist its public perception
through control of the media. Foreign media is banned and newspapers,
broadcasting and all mass media are tools used for projecting approved information
and propaganda (Savada, 1993). This allows them to portray that the government
hasn’t failed its people but instead that they are under hardship by American
or Western oppression. “These ineffective sanctions are being used as
propaganda tools to further flame anti-American sentiments,” said Kim Tae-hoon,
co-founder of DoDaum, a humanitarian group in the North (Sang-Hun,
2018). North Korean socialistic ideology teaches that a collective spirit takes
priority over individual liberties, yet the higher class justify inequalities
as political imperatives (Savada, 1993). Furthermore, the regime is extra
protected by uprising by using incentives and perks for political and military class
and brutal punishment for any opposition by anyone of any class with even minor
offenses calling for “reeducation” (Byman and Lind, 2018). Perhaps the most unnervingly powerful grip of
control is the DPRK’s Third Generation policy, in which not only the
perpetrator is punished but so is the family up to three generations (Byman and
Lind, 2018). Some babies will spend their whole lives living in political
prison camp for crimes of their parents. Kim Jong Sung ruled the state with his
close ties of family and fellow anti-Japanese guerillas while his son, Kim Jong
Il implemented competing internal security agencies to maximize information of
any anti-regime activity while limiting the unity of the security forces thus
coup-proofing the regime (Byman and Lind, 2018).
Even though the DPRK technically
agreed to the goal of denuclearization at the Singapore summit, it did not
agree to any timeframe and has not shown real progress of its vague commitment
since then (Friedman 2018). That means that they could denuclearize in 500
years, or 2,000 and would technically be holding up their end of the bargain. The
excitement generated by the meeting is overplayed by Trump, especially
considering that this is not the first time that North Korea has vowed to
“abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs” at a vague time
such as “an early date” (Friedman 2018). The only possible actual progress that
was made was that it was the first time two leaders of each nation sat down
together and that at least they are talking instead threatening war.
It
would be in North Koreas best interests to become a Pakistan of East Asia
because Pakistan is the closest thing to North Korea which has nukes and is
stable enough to not look like a black mass when viewed from space at night. Sanctions
on Pakistan date back to 1978 but it still successfully carried out nuclear
tests 20 years later in 1998. The two countries have several similarities, the
leaders of Pakistan also were also willing to put the people of its country
under extreme measures to ensure its nuclear ambitions. The politician Zulfikar
Ali Bhutto, who later became prime minister said “If India builds the bomb, we
will eat grass or leaves—even go hungry—but we will get one of our own”
(Tierney, 2018). They both have a continual rivalry with a state that used
to be part of the same country; India and South Korea (Tierney, 2018). And they
are both morally questionable. Pakistan is a contradictory case which has both
supported terrorism and fought against it (Sappenfield 2006). It has taken a
double obligation to combat terrorism as an American ally but also supporting
Islamic coalitions and its land being a terrorist training ground (Sappenfield
2006). Despite this it was convincing enough to have sanctions eased. Since America
supports both democracies and shady characters that can make a deal, North
Korea would have to have something special it can offer for the U.S. or show that
it can at least part of the time it be a useful ally or appear that way in
order for America to get off its back.
The
UN would be best off not hampering North Korea to denuclearize and may even be
making matters worse. Sanctions historically have only worked to remove
incomplete nuclear programs such as the case with Libya. In fact, for North
Korea, Libya’s fate serves as great reason to not denuclearize. In 2011, less
than a decade after Qaddaffi essentially handed over his nuclear program, the
US and its allies joined with rebels to overthrow Qaddaffis regime (Tierney,
2018). North Korea in its origins held a view of the United States as a
successor to Japanese imperialism and the Korean War greatly enhanced this
perception (Savada, 1993). Although
sinister the DPRK is not dumb, they know they are guilty of transnational
crime, they know the US has taken extreme containment measures in the past and
they don’t want to become a “monster to destroy” and even if Kim appears to be
OK with Trump, they also know that U.S. presidential administration shifts
every 4-8 years and keep previous events in mind. In 2003 for example, Iraq
suffered invasion from U.S. under Bush’s administration despite having let in
inspectors to verify its abandonment of weapons of mass destruction (Tierney,
2018). North Korea enhanced its nuclear efforts in response believing that they
would likely suffer a similar fate without a strong deterrent (Abt 2017, 119).
The DPRK can’t trust the United States and who could blame them. A more
realistic goal for now would be to ease tensions and work towards a North Korea
which can have nukes to feel safe but doesn’t flaunt them. They know that they
have a pale arsenal compared to the superpowers of Earth and that they could be
annihilated if they actually attempted to use them. The only time nuclear bombs
have been used in warfare was in 1945, when they weren’t prevalent in various
nations. It actually becomes more dangerous and counterproductive to strangle
the regime to death, because it’s human nature to do something crazy when you
know you’re going to die anyway.
Works
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